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In today’s modern world data truly is everywhere. It can be an incredible tool of information in enterprises driven by efficiency and effective decision making. When your analysis is accurate and yields good results you have confidence in your approach, but what happens when your analysis is incorrect? Have you ever asked how you can be wrong when you seemingly did everything correct? One of the key tenants of data analysis is that it can say almost anything, but, with that amazing tool, there comes an immense responsibility for the user to operate with integrity and intelligence. One example we love to use to describe data analysis and reporting is what we call the blue vs green game: If I wanted to prove that blue was better than green and blue even beat green 15 times then I could report that blue defeated green 15 times, making it better. In a world where few have time to read the details, it becomes important to provide context and this is where integrity and intelligence are applied. Many people might read that and assume blue was better than green, but if you actually read the study and realize that blue only defeated green 15 times out of 100 you quickly realize that green is better. Hence the need for integrity in your analysis.

Keeping this in mind, let’s evaluate the current state of the business aviation industry. The term we continue to repeat is stabilized cooling. Since our post Covid peaks of 2021 & early 2022 we have seen a consistent but steady decline in activity. In 2019 the industry averaged about 260,000 flights per month in North America, in 2022 we averaged 300,000 flights per month and YTD, in 2024, we’re averaging 284,000 flights per month through November. On one hand we’re down 5.3% from the high’s of 2022 but on the other hand we’re up 9.2% from 2019. Whether you view the industry as up or down primarily depends on how you interpret the initial Covid spikes in activity. Either way, the is no denying that our industry has grown over the last 5 years and the numbers seem to indicate our “stabilized cooling” could be nearing its bottom. Hopefully this means more blue skies and tailwinds for the industry in 2025, but that assessment, and the subsequent results, will heavily depend on which lens you view the industry from; the high points of 2022 or the industry of pre-Covid. We’ll leave that analysis up to you, but, for now, you’ve seen our analysis of the numbers & context and you have the important information to form your own. But if you should need help you know who to call for assistance.